The UK’s future relationship with the EU will be serious: Next week’s referendum on the negotiated Brexit agreement will be in the British House of Commons. From Wednesday, the debates will start there again. The outcome of the vote is still unclear – several scenarios are currently possible.
A few days before the vote on Tuesday, January 15, Prime Minister Theresa May continues to seek support for her controversial Brexit agreement. The deliberations in the House of Commons on the draft treaty negotiated with the EU will resume on Wednesday and Thursday. They could last until Friday, a spokesman said.
A majority for the deal is not in sight a few months before the planned withdrawal in March. Neither in their own Conservative Party nor in the Northern Irish DUP, on whose votes Mays minority government relies, there is movement. So May is in a similar situation as in December. At that time, the House of Commons should have voted on the Brexit Treaty – but May threatened defeat. The vote has been postponed.
A few days before the announced vote May had to accept a setback in parliament. MEPs argued that in a „no-deal brexit“, the government explicitly needs parliamentary approval before resorting to certain powers in the tax code. 303 parliamentarians voted for this path, 296 against. May’s office had downplayed the importance of the vote earlier and said it was a more technical thing. In fact, the result also reflects May’s weak position.
Northern Ireland issue remains sticking point
Above all, the different positions on the Northern Ireland question argue in favor of a failure of the negotiated agreement: rejection of the emergency regulation aimed at preventing a fixed border between the British province of Northern Ireland and the EU member Ireland.
This backstop would, according to critics, bind the United Kingdom to the EU in the long term. May tries to get concessions from the EU in the coming days. However, the EU Commission announced that it would no longer shake the agreement.
If a majority of the members of parliament in the lower house vote against the agreement, an unregulated withdrawal, new elections, renegotiations or postponement of the agreement but also a second referendum would open the door.
Barclay: „We do not aim for an extension“
So far, however, the London government has stated that Britain will leave the EU without a deal if the lower house does not agree. Nonetheless, on Tuesday, several ministers criticized a disorderly exit and apparently wanted to put pressure on Parliament. Especially the Brexit hardliners support a „hard“ Brexit. More than 200 of the 650 British parliamentarians recently appealed against an unregulated withdrawal in a bipartisan letter. They worry about jobs and consequences for the economy.
However, in recent days, a report circulated that London was considering postponing the end of March exit. „We are not seeking an extension (note of Article 50),“ said Brexit Minister Stephen Barclay. The Daily Telegraph newspaper had reported, with reference to three sources, that British officials had suggested in Brussels whether a withdrawal could be postponed.
27 EU countries should agree to postponement
To postpone Article 50 would require the agreement of the remaining 27 EU countries. Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union regulates the withdrawal of a member state – thus the membership ends at the latest two years after the declared withdrawal. An EU diplomat called the option of postponing the exit a „very hypothetical option“ that nobody would prefer.
Quite possible would be an extension of a few weeks, but only if the conclusion of the exit agreement was imminent. The matter would be complicated by the elections to the European Parliament in late May. Great Britain is no longer there. The seats of the parliamentarians of the island fall away.
A second referendum on remaining in the EU May rejected several times and said that a new vote was not feasible before the planned departure date on 29 March. In such a referendum would have a poll on the survey platform YouGov, according to the Brexit opponents at the moment the upper hand. If there was a second referendum at the moment, 46 percent said they would stay and 39 would say so. Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn, however, sets on a new election.
Dual citizenship for Austrians
Austria, like the other 26 EU countries, is preparing for an unresolved Brexit. The approximately 25,000 Austrians living in Great Britain are to be given the option of dual citizenship. The FPÖ Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl announced in a press conference on Tuesday. For this purpose, Austria would have to partially withdraw from the Council of Europe Convention on the Prevention of Dual Citizenship.
In principle, according to Kneissl, dual citizenships should continue to be avoided, but exemptions should be created for three groups: Austrians in Great Britain, survivors of the Shoah and their descendants and – as already controversial both internally and externally – for German-speaking and Ladin South Tyroleans.
On the other hand, would the British living in Austria in the case of a „hard Brexit“ as normal third-country nationals to treat and apply for a new residence permit, said Interior Ministry spokesman Christoph Pölzl. Whether Austria will introduce special regulations in such a case is still open, according to the Interior Ministry.
