Following the cancellation of the mayoral election that was already struck at the end of March, Sunday will decide whether Istanbul will be governed by the conservative AKP party of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan or the winner of the first round, the opposition candidate Ekrem Imamoglu. This was with AKP challenger Binali Yildim until recently a sharp, also unusual flowers driving fight for Erdogans hometown.
Imamoglu, the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) opposition alliance, struck a brisk note on March 31, with just under 14,000 out of a total of 8.9 million votes cast. The next was followed by Erdogan’s AKP, which after a weeks-long hiccup at the High Electoral Commission of Turkey (YSK) successfully prevailed a cancellation of the election because of alleged „irregularities“.
Erdogan, Lord Mayor of Istanbul from 1994 to 1998, had no doubt from the beginning that this was about much more than a local election. Rather, he said before the first round of voting: „He who wins Istanbul wins Turkey.“ While Erdogan described the annulment of the election as „an important step in strengthening our democracy,“ the opposition spoke of a worrying sign of democracy in the country ,
Another tight race?
Imamoglu can still hope for the highest office in Istanbul. References were repeatedly made during the recent election campaign. Accordingly, about one and a half weeks ago, the Areda Institute predicted an Imamoglu victory by about three percent. The pollster Konda predicted on Wednesday with a lead of 8.1 percent on Yildrim an even clearer Imamoglu election victory.
In a synopsis, the opinion polls nevertheless presented a mixed picture. Not a few are politically motivated and their results should be used with caution. Although they saw „their“ own candidate in front, but often only a short distance from the opponent candidate. According to these institutes, as with the first election on March 31, it could be tight again. The reverse conclusion is: Erdogan must continue to tremble around Istanbul.
From the AKP it is loud dpa, even internal party polls showed Imamoglu front. Finally, observers also find one of the reasons why Erdogan, unlike in March, initially kept out of the election campaign. According to media reports, this may be a sign that Erdogan already expects a second defeat of his party and wants to distance himself from it. Erdogan himself describes the survey results as „completely manipulative and made to order“.
„Can not leave Istanbul to these liars“
Quite in this sense, Erdogan initially made moderate tones the priority of the election: it was „only“ a mayoral election. In addition, the AKP has a majority in the city parliament and thus the real power. A few days before the election, however, Erdogan again sharpened the tone and said in a speech in Istanbul that Istanbul could not be „left to these liars“.
Erdogan also accused the imamoglu concerned of having links with the Gülen movement, which the Turkish leadership blamed for the July 2016 coup attempt. Erdogan also repeated the allegation that the mayoral election at the end of March had been „corruption“ and „theft“.
In another election campaign Erdogan also wondered about the great foreign interest in the Istanbul election and suspected in this context „foreign forces“ to have in the new election of the mayor’s hands in the game. Erdogan accused Imamoglu of being assisted from abroad and by „terrorists“.
First TV debate since 2002
Erdogan, however, had been campaigning intensely from the beginning to the vote at the end of March with up to eight appearances in one day. In the current election campaign, the focus was on Yildirim, who faced Imamoglu on Sunday in a TV duel – the first since 2002.
Although the electoral commission had stated no actual manipulation, Yildirim renewed in the nationwide, approximately three-hour TV debate on Sunday evening, among other things, his allegation that the election had been „stolen“. By whom, said the former Minister of Transport and Prime Minister also on repeated demand not.
Imamoglu emphasized that the election was „not just a local election“, but the fight for democracy. In addition, he was elected mayor in the first ballot and then cheated out of his rights. While Yildrim repeatedly accused his opponent of lying, Imamoglu accused the AKP city government, among other things, of wasting taxpayers‘ money and questionable millions on government-related institutions and religious foundations.
Observers also from the Council of Europe
An open question in the election, however, remains whether both sides will accept the outcome this time. According to the AFP, this also raises the question „whether there can still be a change of power in Turkey through fair democratic elections“. Is it after the citizens‘ initiative Oy ve Ötesi election fraud in Turkey is not so easy. In contrast, the Turkish electoral process is „better than its reputation,“ at least „as long as there is no pressure on the institutions,“ as club leader Mustafa Köksalan said.
Oy ve Ötesi claims to watch the election with thousands of volunteers. The opposition party CHP has also committed thousands of lawyers who are expected to stand at the polls to guarantee the legality of the process. The AKP also announced the deployment of election observers.
There are also international observer teams. Even before election day, a delegation of the Council of Europe traveled to Istanbul, but also to the Turkish capital Ankara, to speak with candidates, diplomats and electoral authorities. The Strasbourg-based Council of Europe monitors compliance with human rights in the 47 Member States with the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR).
