The Socialists of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez (PSOE) are likely to win the early Spanish parliamentary elections on April 28, according to polls, but the two right-wing conservative opposition parties, with the support of the new right-wing populist Vox party, are likely to gain a governing majority.
According to a recent poll by the daily La Vanguardia, socialists could improve from 85 to 119, replacing the conservative People’s Party (PP) of opposition leader Pablo Casado as the strongest parliamentary group, leaving only 97 MPs, say 40 less than so far. According to a Gesop poll, quoted by the newspaper El Periodico yesterday, the PP would even reach 75 to 77 seats.
Socialists far from majority
Nevertheless, the Socialists are again far from a majority with government power. For most of the change voters receive them from the only political ally of the left-wing populist alliance Unidos Podemos, which could let in the new elections properly feathers and falling from 71 to 32 seats.
On the other hand, the PP loses most seats to the right-wing Ciudadanos, who could improve from 32 to 60 seats. And the new right-wing populists would immediately succeed in leapfrogging into the national parliament.
The xenophobic formation Vox of Santiago Abascal, which promotes the defense of the unity of the Fatherland, especially with regard to the Catalan separatists, could receive 16 deputies from the state.
All three parties want in government
According to most opinion polls, Vox could even get between 10 and 15 percent of the vote, say up to 46 seats. The Gesop survey also predicts Vox between 43 and 46 MPs. Thus, the right-wing conservative camp would definitely get over half of all 350 mandates in parliament and can make the new head of government.
All three parties have already confirmed their interest in such a coalition. In mid-January, PP and Ciudadanos formed a government coalition to take over the government for the first time after 36 years with the support of Vox in the traditional socialist stronghold of Andalusia.
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez had called new elections in Spain on Friday, after the conservative opposition parties and the two Catalan separatist parties had finally rejected on Wednesday, the draft budget of his minority government.
