The trade dispute between the US and China has left its mark, and the risk of unregulated Brexit is high. Nevertheless, the foreign trade association BGA expects German exports to grow by up to three percent this year.
„Around the world is still built, invested and above all consumed,“ said BGA President Holger Bingmann the „world“. „The situation is not crisis-prone, so we expect that we will have to go through a valley this year, but that it will even be a little bit better, if the open problems and risks do not escalate or do not materialize again with a slight recovery. “
Next year, exports will increase by 3.5 percent. For the past year, the BGA had lowered its forecast in October to 3.5 from before plus five percent.
„We have also struggled internally with what prognosis we should go this year,“ said Bingmann on the growth prospects for 2019. Even an orderly Brexit could cost Germany 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points of gross domestic product. In principle, however, the constitution of the global economy is robust enough to ensure better business for German exporters.
„Basically, German companies are best prepared for a tough Brexit in European comparison because they have a lot of experience with countries outside the EU, where doing business is not always easy,“ said Bingmann.
One of the biggest worries about Brexit, the BGA president said many entrepreneurs doubted that the British could organize a rapid clearance of goods. Even with product approvals – for example in the chemical trade – or with the handling of personal data with the wage accounting for employees on the island there are great challenges.
Despite all risks for the companies, Bingmann rejects major Brexit renegotiations. „The EU should by no means reload heavily or meet the British with far-reaching concessions,“ he said. „There is an agreement that has now been negotiated between the two clenching teeth, and in which both sides have made massive concessions, which should not be shaken.“
