The nuclear deal with Iran threatens to burst. Not only would the country suffer economically, it would also lose political backing. And that is precisely the goal of the US government.
The power of the Trump administration is on: Iran is threatening Europe to re-enrich uranium – stronger than allowed by the international nuclear agreement. Iran would violate the terms of the agreement. As a result, Teheran not only loses its economic support from Europe, but also the political backing. And that was the goal of President Donald Trump and the US strategy of maximum pressure.
Iran has been patronizing over the past year, according to an e-mail from the Foundation for Democracy Defenses, which has been a major factor in Iran’s policy toward Iran in Washington for months. Now choose Tehran a more active role. For the US, this would be a model to demand new sanctions from the United Nations against Iran.
Atomic agreement expected from the table
The world does not become safer. The agreement, which prevents Iran from building a nuclear bomb, is expected to be off the table. New negotiations are not in sight. It was US President Trump set with the goal of new talks, when he announced a year ago, unilaterally leave the nuclear contract.
The US has made twelve demands. Thus, the Iranian leadership should take less influence in the region, for example in Syria. Washington is pushing for the respect of human rights. The US administration does not want to negotiate only about the nuclear program. It also calls for an end to ballistic missile research – and for Tehran to stop supporting organizations like Hezbollah. These are legitimate interests.
Goal: regime change in Tehran
However, the twelve points are not a basis for negotiation, but now preconditions for talks. To make matters worse, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and security adviser John Bolton are basically convinced that only a regime change could bring security to Tehran. Trump had promised his voters to stop intervening in the world.
Therefore, it is officially stated in Washington that Iran’s policy is to force Tehran to change its behavior. However, according to Foreign Minister Pompeo and security adviser Bolton, that is not possible.
Creeping escalation
The result is a creeping escalation with no real way out: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has declared US soldiers in the region as terrorists after the US administration put the Revolutionary Guard on the list of terrorist organizations. US security adviser Bolton speaks of dangers to the US military in the Middle East. Foreign Minister Pompeo travels to Baghdad instead of Berlin.
The fever curve on US news channels is rising. The real problems move into the background. Europe has acted too late and is marginalized. The US is indirectly strengthening China and Russia in the conflict. And the starting point for a necessary nuclear agreement is not better, but currently worse than five years ago.
